Root Board Game

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“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.

Each Supreme Court term begins on the first Monday in October and runs through late June or early July. The court typically receives about 7,000-8,000 writ petitions and grants about 80, or 1%, each term. Four of the nine sitting justices must vote to accept a case. Five current justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch and Sonia Sotomayor – were on the bench in 2018 for the PASPA case.

There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.

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Beyond Texas, Kalshi made history on Friday when it became the first prediction market to sign a partnership with a federally recognised sovereign nation.

One day before a primetime showdown between the University of Mississippi and Louisiana State University, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana announced the launch of a tribal prediction market app. The new app, powered by Kalshi, will be launched through SaltTrade Derivatives, a newly established subdivision of a tribal-owned enterprise.

Through the collaboration, the tribe will draw upon Kalshi’s established infrastructure and market expertise to develop a distinct tribal-owned trading application, said Tunica-Biloxi Chairman Marshall Pierite in a statement.

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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.