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What is Desert Drag?
While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.
Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.
That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.
How to play Desert Drag
The specialised media – channels, portals, journalists and gossip profiles – complete this ecosystem with profiles focused on reporting on sports and the promotion of gambling platforms.
Here, advertising for online betting sites is positioned differently. Presented as news, the content talks about the highest odds on the market, features offered by operators, regulatory changes and various cases of bettors, ranging from those who made huge financial gains to those who lost everything.
It is very common among the different profiles identified to refer to regulatory bodies, such as the National Advertising Self-Regulation Council and SIGAP (Brazil’s betting management system). They also speak of responsible gaming in a generic way. In many cases, this is associated with illegal operators and potentially irregular advertising practices.
What is Desert Drag?
For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.
Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.
